Looks like the industry could be heading into another round of price pressure.
Construction costs were already sitting about 35% above pre-COVID levels, after rising more than 40% between 2020 and 2024. Prices never really came back down, and now there is a new issue on top: the 28 February 2026 disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.
What makes this round different is the type of materials likely to be hit. During COVID the big movers were timber, steel and labour. This time the pressure is more on petroleum-linked products and anything heavily affected by oil and transport costs. That includes PVC pipe, polyethylene pipe, polypropylene fittings, bitumen, foam insulation, adhesives, coatings, sealants and waterproofing membranes. One supplier notice reportedly went out only about six weeks after the Strait disruption, which shows how fast this could flow through.
Copper is another big one to watch. It was already running hot before the latest Middle East disruption, with a reported 16.5% year-on-year rise in late 2025, and prices breaking above US$13,000 per tonne in early 2026. That matters because copper feeds into electrical, plumbing, HVAC and mechanical trades, and there are expectations of two more electrical cable price rises during 2026.
Queensland looks especially exposed. Brisbane has reportedly been identified as a national hotspot for escalation through 2027, with construction costs forecast to rise 7.50% to 7.75% in 2026. Between Olympic infrastructure, the $9 billion Bruce Highway upgrade, and the broader housing pipeline, there is a lot of competition for the same labour and materials.
Another warning sign is contract behaviour. Some major contractors are apparently pulling back from long fixed-price commitments, with tender validity periods as short as 15 days. That usually tells you the market does not trust prices to hold for long.
There is also a temporary fuel buffer right now, with the fuel excise cut from 52.6 cents to 26.3 cents per litre for three months from 1 April, but June could be another pressure point once that ends.
Feels like anyone pricing jobs right now should be watching copper, PVC, poly products, waterproofing and other oil-linked materials pretty closely.
Anyone already seeing rises come through on pipe, cable, sealants, waterproofing or similar?
